Climbing mortgage rates take a pause — for now

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Access articles from across Canada with one account Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments Enjoy additional articles per month Get email updates from your favourite authors Sign In or Create an Account or After hitting a 28-month high last week, Canada’s five-year bond yield , which closely correlates with fixed rates , fell about 13 basis points. Don’t uncork anything yet. Of all the changes to leading rates in the last seven days, only one was a cut: the one-year fixed for default-insured borrowers, which slipped five basis points to 4.44 per cent.

Every other move was up. Brokers and lenders I talk to say roughly half of Canadians are still choosing to float. Much of that comes down to price, with variable rates now 90 to 110 basis points cheaper than fixed.

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Please try again Meanwhile, rate markets are stuck in the same waiting room they’ve been in for months, hoping Iran cracks and comes to the negotiating table — in good faith, that is. The difference today is that Iran is running out of time, with severe sanctions and the U.S. oil blockade crushing their economy to a point that may spark mass revolt. But until the rogue nation and its proxies stop menacing oil suppliers, mortgage rates could keep climbing.

The energy inflation they’re causing is slowly seeping into the cost of other goods and services. It shows up in surging producer prices, small-business pricing intentions and broader inflation pressures, as measured by Statistics Canada’s breadth data. But oil doesn’t get all the blame.

Resilient growth, AI-driven corporate borrowing, deficit spending, trade wars and the end of the global savings glut are also driving inflation and rates higher. Robert McLister is a mortgage strategist, interest rate analyst and editor of MortgageLogic.news . You can follow him on X at @RobMcLister .

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Source: Financial Post